real estate blogger

Dubai World Debt - Nakheel to get substantial funds!

2010-03-25T11:02:00.004+04:00

Good Morning,

I usually try to give you something a little light hearted but this morning the news wires are reporting some very important and good news. Here is the extract from Arabain Business I have just read:

'Dubai Government has confirmed it is to plough up to $9.5bn into troubled conglomerate Dubai World, as part of a restructuring plan which will see work continue on major Nakheel projects.Of this new cash, $8bn will be pumped into the real estate developer, and the remaining $1.5bn into parent company Dubai World.According to a statement by HH Shiekh Ahmad bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman of the Dubai Supreme Fiscal Committee, the funding will be provided in part by $5.7bn remaining from a loan previously made available from the Government of Abu Dhabi, and the rest from internal Dubai Government resources.Sheikh Ahmad added that as part of Nakheel’s restructuring proposal, the company’s bank creditors “will be asked to restructure their debt at commercial rates. Trade creditors will be offered a significant cash payment shortly and a tradable security. Assuming sufficient support for the proposal, the 2010 and 2011 Nakheel Sukuk will be paid as they fall due”.Describing Nakheel as an “important part” of the emirate’s economy, he said the business plan would allow work “to continue as soon as possible and puts Nakheel on a sound footing. The Government, as shareholder, will work closely with Nakheel so that any future projects are carefully planned and evaluated.”He added that the restructuring process is expected to take several months to implement, and said that the tribunal process “remains available to protect the companies, their creditors and other stakeholders”.Assuming sufficient support for the proposal, the 2010 and 2011 Nakheel Sukuk will be paid as they fall due." ( Source: Arabian Business . com - Andrew White - 25th March 2010)

There will be more detail over the next few weeks but at least we can rejoice in the fact that Nakheel are putting some positive news out there.
This is huge for Dubai through this recovery period and if Dubai World and it's subsidiaries can now show the World that they have effective management pushing forward a clear plan then I think there is a good chance that this could be the beginning of a recovery. Money is not the only answer to this problem and I think there will have to be a public rolling of certain heads before the rest of the World start to have faith again.

'Ejari'

2010-03-24T09:47:00.004+04:00

As a landlord or tenant in Dubai this is a new word for your vocabulary. It basically means 'my rent' and is the name for the new system of controlling rents in Dubai.

From now on all tenancy contracts are to be registered in the 'Ejari' system. There are number of reasons for this and my own thoughts are that it will help in the following ways:

It will create a standard porecedure that all agents will have to follow thus illiminating bad practice, negligence, and laziness.
The tenancy contract will be standard reducing any disputes and making the agents life a whole lot easier.
All tenancy contracts will be centrally registered giving the Land's Dept a chance to collect superb data. ( Hope it isn't sold on the black market - you wouldn't believe what data base we get offered)
It will speed up any disputes between Landlord and Tenants.

The important thing to note is that it is mandatory and unless you have registered your tenancy agreement you will not have any claim to a dispute at the Land's Department.

So as a responsible Property Manager we have tried this week to register our landlords property and details. Unfortunately they are not quite ready for us yet but to be fair to them they have responded to my requests faster and more efficiently than any other gov't department in the past.

I really support this initiative as it makes the whole process clear and transparent. and hope that it won't be long before the sales process gets a similar change.

If any of you want more information then you could check out www.ejari.ae or keep checking this page for updates I feel are important.

1,000 dirham For Sale Boards!

2010-03-17T08:34:00.003+04:00

I need to verify this but I was told on Tuesday that Victory Heights, in Sports City, are going to start charging 1,000 AED a month for the privilage of allowing us to put up 'For Sale' or 'To Let' boards.

At the moment we probably have about 20 boards up which means I would get stung for 20,000 dirhams per month! Not going to happen I can tell you now.

There are agents with a lot more boards up and to perfectly honest you can understand the reason behind it. There are far too many boards up and it does not look appealing when you visit the place. Often they get ripped down by the competition and left for dead on the floor.

Just for the record we will not be paying this charge but if the sellers are keen to have a board up then we would be happy to fill in the paperwork on their behalf and put up one of our aesthetically pleasing little numbers.

Some of you who are overseas may not understand the complexity of Dubai's trade license laws which I think will be my arguement with the facilities management company who are imposing this charge. Simply, you have to have a trade license for the specific trade you engage in. I cannot venture outside of my licensed activities and if i do there would be a large fine. As you will remember I know this only too well with the fight i had with the Tourist board over short term lettings.

In the Uk agents pay a company about 100 dhs to put up a board, maintain it, and add sold slips. So to pay 1,000 dhs a month to effectively rent space in a garden which is not theirs is missing some important thought processes.

If you are taking a look in Victory Heights this weekend you might need to look in the house window for the agent's details as we are confident the Facilities Mgt won't be able to charge a ground rent on your living room window.

Top tips to find a tenant

2010-02-08T12:43:00.005+04:00

There are alot of properties being handed over at the moment and many landlords are asking about how easy it will be to find a tenant when they recieve the keys. Here are some of my thoughts taking into account current market conditions.
Properties soon to be handed over are:

Marina Residence, Palm Jumeirah

Oceana, Palm Jumeirah

Taj Grandeur, The Crescent, Palm Jumeirah

Fairmont, Palm Jumeirah

I would estimate that there are at least 2,000 apartments in these four developments, and they are all due to be handed over before June. This is alot of units and agents and investors need to be aware that this will impact the rental and the resale market.

We have been lucky throughout 2009 as rents on the Palm have stood up pretty well with one beds in Tiara reaching as high as 150k p.a.

The question is can the market withstand all these new ones coming on at the same time. If you are a landlord who wants to limit the void period then you will be pushing your rent down to get the first batch of tenants in your unit. This, I think, will be a common trend throughout 2010 which will undoubtedly lead to a new pricing structure for the fresh stock coming on.

Link this is with new towers in the Marina and JLT coming online and the simple facts are that supply is going to outwiegh demand.

As a responsible agent we have to take these factors seriously and monitor the situation closely so we can advise both landlords and tenants.
There are a number of simple things we can do to enhance the chances of finding suitable tenants with limited voids.
These are:

Face facts immediately and do some research on prices and understand exactly where the pricies are at. Overshooting the market will result in an empty unit so accept the market price and start returning an income.
Keep the apartment clean and organise regular cleaning of the floors and windows. Show it off to its best.Dirty toilets are a put off when you are viewing the one next door which is immaculate.
The state of the apartment is a reflection on the landlord. Over the course of a year the Tenant will need something and if he has a choice of a property which has been ignored since handover or a property which is presented well he will think to himself that the landlord cares and will be easier to deal with if anything goes wrong.
Landlords should start considering paying the agent fee on the basis that they don't charge the tenant. Advertise with no fees to a tenant and I gaurantee your property will be first off the shelf.
Choose one agent and give them a key. Those of you who like to send drivers to open the door are not helping yourselves. Your agent needs immediate access and does not want to spend hours waiting for a key everytime there is a viewing. Most properties will need a dozen viewings befiore there is a tenant found and leaving the driver to liase with agents is minimising your chances of being the property of choice in the agent's office.
Be flexible on the cheques. You don't need to offer more than 4 cheques but insisting on one is suicide these days.
Be open to furnishing the apartment. Corporate rentals are a good source of enquiries and they all want furnished apartments.
Tenants love managed properties. They have a point of contact and the property is maintained. They always stay longer.

PLEASE TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY. YOU WILL THANK ME ONE DAY!

Nakheel start charging for late Service Charges

2010-01-20T08:49:00.005+04:00

Service charges are always a contentious issue and in these tough times it is a cost that hurts even more.

Most of the Service charges we deal with are for Nakheel Asset Management with Tiara being a recent addition.

Nakheel have been particularly laid back at collecting the service charges which i presume is due to the fact that many residents have firstly challenged the amount charged and then knocked the service provided. It is no surprise to me that the services provided are sub standard on the Shorelines when you consider the delinquincy rate of collections. I would guess that over 30% of residents are in the very late payer category and some are owing in excess of 100,000 dirhams. I also think that some of these late payers are the more vociferous ones when attacking the quality of services.

Service charges need paying or quite simply the investment will fall into disrepair and impact on sales values.

We have been told this week that Nakheel will start charging a late payment fee which will go down like a lead balloon but I think necessary.

As a guide here are some latest Service charges for you to compare:

Nakheel Shoreline

Service Charge 14 dhs /sq.ft
Community charge 5.10 dhs/sq.ft
Club house 2.6 dhs / sq.ft

Tiara
Service charge 19 dhs/ sq ft
Community charge 6 dhs/sq/ft

Marina Residence

Service charge total 19 dhs / sq.ft

We can challenge these all we like but service charges are a cost that has to be paid and if we want a decent environment to live where you can charge decent rental rates the charge is unavoidable.

Costa v Starbucks

2010-01-06T09:27:00.002+04:00

Two cups of coffee in the space of an hour and two totally different views of Dubai.

So, Monday 10 am and I have arranged to meet an investor who I have been chatting on and off with for the past 5 years. I generally prefer Starbucks to Costa so we met at JBR for a change from my usual surroundings.

As we stood in line, waiting to order, I politely asked about the kids with every intent of doing a bit of 'oohing' and 'aahing' about the snowfall in the UK. Not necessary as we were straight into the property game quicker than it takes Emaar to change a name on a Tower.

Its like this Mark . I have sat it out for years and Dubai has been good to me but I just don't feel comfortable anymore with any investment outside of the Palm Jumeirah. Jebel Ali in my opinion is a long long way off ,if ever, and I want out. Quite frankly if it was my development company that owned it, he said, I would dump it.

Slurping away at my piping hot skinny latte I bought a bit of time and feigned burnt lips and wiped away the froth from the side of my mouth whilst I thought of an answer

With his eyes bearing down on me he was only expecting one answer . 'You're right the place is never going to get built and you should run for the hills with 50% of the original price in your back pocket.'

It was early and I really didn't feel like the challenge so I shrugged and said 'we don't call it Wobbly Jelly for nothing'.
I honestly haven't got a clue what will happen but one thing for sure is that there is a very large piece of reclaimed land in Jebel Ali waiting to be developed.

After dodging the bullets my latte had cooled down to a temperature where I could gulp rather than slurp so I made my pleasantries and left. I was now Costa bound on the Palm for another potential lecture in how the world is doomed.

Skinny Cappucino please - who am I kidding? the belt is a full stretch since Xmas. We settled down with our respective drinks and I couldn't beleive my ears. 'Mark, I want to buy in Jebel Ali. I know its a risk and information is limited but you know there is a big piece of reclaimed land out there and one day it will get developed. I want in now'. Not exactly deja vu but i thought someone had spiked my drink.

No point in asking this guy about his kids then!!

This is what it is like at the moment. Everybody has a view on the state of the economy and in this emerging market we call Dubai there are a hell of alot of risk takers living here. For sure there are going to be some more tears but at the same time there are going to be some seriously happy people.

I still prefer Starbucks as a venue but for a coffee with a kick I highly recommend a trip to Costa Coffee on the Palm where I think Nakheel are sponsoring the extra shots.

Is the Nakheel bond the catalyst that takes the UAE to a new level of Federal cooperation?

2009-12-16T08:41:00.003+04:00

Anybody remotely connected with Dubai will have done well to ignore all the rumpus about the Nakheel Sukuk.For obvious reasons i have been watching it like a hawk ( or falcon) and admit to being perplexed by the way it has played out.

Emotions have been running high with a potential run on the banks being diverted by the Central Bank offering capital to the 'local' banks to the eventual 'gift' of $10bn being sent down Sheikh Zayed road in a very large wheel barrow. I know some of you have been missing Dave so I thought I would post the last picture we managed to get of him...

This money has been given at the last minute and it is probably fair to say that in addtion to the banks having to sweat it out for a couple of weeks Abu Dhabi have done a pretty good job of making Dubai taste a large slice of humble pie too.

My view on this( with hind sight) is that there has been the annual GCC summit this week held in Kuwait where it would have been impossible for the UAE not to stand side by side and re affirm its unity. Yes they took it to the wire but Abu Dhabi has delivered and The World financial institutions have been given a huge shot of confidence which will now allow Dubai to sit with the Banks from a position of strength and renegogiate future bonds that are due to mature. I am sure all bonds will not get paid quite so easily but this is normal and now that Dubai is back in the game, and has bought in Deloitte's to advise on the restructuring required, I am confident again that Abu Dhabi and Dubai have shown the unity expected of them.

Question to you all. Name the three islands off the UAE that are giving the UAE the most regrets ?

Answer. Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Moussa.

These three islands have been occupied by Iran and the GCC yesterday reiterated that soveriegnty belonged to the UAE. I suspect we won't see another Falklands war breaking out but atleast it wasn't the three islands you were thinking of.

Raha Beach has a push

2009-06-20T21:39:00.004+04:00

We have been saying it all year!Off plan is dead but completed or nearly completed stock has a chance depending on location.

We had a few sales this week in Abu Dhabi and quite frankly they came out of the blue. We have not advertised AD for over 7 months and the website is totally out of date! We put our heart and soul into The Palm and then 3 quick sales from somewhere off the radar.

I actually worry about things like this, convincing myself that i am missing a trick and too slow to see what is happening.After scratching my pate for 48 hrs I decided to get in the car and see for myself how the Capitol was bucking the trend.

Here is what i saw.

This is the New Head Office for Aldar and in my opinion totally breathtaking. I don't suppose it is particularly economic on useable space but on this occasion i don't care. It is going to be the centre piece for some time for Al Raha Beach and allows Aldar bragging rights to say they have arrived and mean business.

Muneera and Bandar projects are a short distance away and unfortunately it was a sandy day and difficult to get decent photos.

These projects are progressing well and have come out of the ground siginificantly which must account for the recent activity.

There is a huge lack of housing in Abu Dhabi which sees rental rates still rising. It is in need of properties reaching the market as soon as possible. These projects benefit from being close to the Etihad headquarters and will be full of Pilots etc.

Despite the recent downturn it looks to me like Al Raha beach is going to have a good run as all the fundamentals are in place and to top it all Abu Dhabi Finance ( along with other banks) are throwing money around at would be homeowners.

I don't suggest we all go buying off plan properties again just yet but the prices you can buy AL Raha beach for today are going to rise considerably in the 12 months.

Trainspotter

2009-05-25T12:11:00.003+04:00

I am an Anorak!

I have done it and I promise you will only see me sat onthe Monorail again when I am either drunk and planning a getaway from the Atlantis or someone is paying me a fortune.

Although there were hardly any people on it the majority were loud obnoxious brats who need a lesson in how to act in public. It made me remember why I have only been to the Mall of the Emirates 4 times since it opened. I need a bubble to live in and preferably one that does not glide on a few sheets of concrete up and down the Palm.

For those of you (Joanna) who think i only talk about beer, the price of a return ticket from the foot of the Palm to the Atlantis is the price of a pint. 25AED. Too much! I would rather get a taxi for 5AEd and suffer the wrath of an angry driver who is miffed that he got such a short ride.

In its defense the ride does give you a great view of the Palm and lands right outside the Atlantis door. I just can't see who would use it at the moment.

One group who will love it are the Trump Investors who get a cracking view of the construction site. No workers but a good view of the foundations which are capped off with concrete. Stop Mark!

View from the window... can you hear the kids!

Palm Market News

2009-05-15T11:02:00.003+04:00

Palm Jumeirah:

This week has seen some reasonable activity on Palm Jumeirah. Both Sales and Lettings have been active and most agents are seeing a pick up.

The Sales department have seen viewings on Shorelines, and the villas. There are requests for Tiara but this is probably just 'laminate floor treading' at this stage. Tiara is lovely but more likely to perform better in the lettings department until Title Deeds are available.
Specifically, we have had offers on Signature Villas form our Russian friends. Smart Russians at that. They sold their Signature villa last year for $6m and are looking to buy back in at $3m. They are going to have to pay closer to $4m for what they want but still shows that 2008/2009 was a good time for some.
M frond low number Garden Home has sold this week for 6.5m AED and Canal Cove 4 bed for 4.5m AED ( take that fork out of your Thigh SC )
The prices aren't making the sellers jump for joy but there is activity and please remember that there is still not a mortgage in sight. When there is finance expect a nice little bounce.

The Lettings Department is very busy with increased viewings. I don't think there are many new tenants floating around as most people are looking to upgrade or get a better rate than they are currently paying. Landlords who already have a tenant should be careful not to push the rates on renewal as the tenants have much more choice and will simply leave.
Tiaras are renting for 130k per annum for a 1 bed with 3 beds touching 240/250k pa. Gardens homes are not much more than 300k p.a with Signatures now less than 500k p.a
Shorelines are doing quite well as tenants enjoy the restaurants and amenities these apartments offer with less than i thought hopping over to Tiara. Shorelines are still flavour of the month with 1 bed sea views reaching 130k p.a .

Over in Palm Jebel Ali it looks like Nakheel are about to announce another delay. They told me last week to expect a very very long delay. Not sure if this means 2 years or 5 but for sure some of you are going to be very upset.

Finally, I am going to be an anorak this week and try out the Palm Monorail. There are only 2 stops at the base of the Palm and Atlantis right now. They are probably thinking of a new name fot the Trump station when it opens. It is 25 dhs round trip, and i will get a 30 dhs coffee at Atlantis to make it worth while. In these times of financial stress I hope you all appreciate this investment I am making for you.

Tickets Please!

2009-04-22T17:12:00.002+04:00

2 weeks and counting!!

At the end of the month the Palm monorail will be open for business! As I am having one of my bitter and twisted days I thought I would show you the route it will take.

Bitter and twisted because when I sit on it to go and see Sammy the Dolphin up in the Atlantis I will be reminded of Trump Tower. Nakheel are going to landscape this area and beautify it so I hope in the process they take this sign down!

This is the end of my rant on this subject! Enough!

Rental allowances loose their fizz

2009-04-15T21:50:00.004+04:00

For the past 5 years I have ben very jealous of all my fellow expats who receive a rent allowance from their companies.Working for yourself has many benefits but it would be great to be self employed and have a rent allowance from some benevolent local.

The playing field seems to be levelling this year with many of our existing tenants and propsective tenants all keen to let us know that their companies have reduced their allowances. Those of you who have not experienced expat living will no doubt be thinking that we should be paying our rent from our salaries and should stop whinging and get on with it. Well, a pint over here is 6 quid and any help you can get is gratefully received. Although I dont get an allowance from my miserly business partner I do sympathise, even if it is through gritted teeth, as this is impacting on the market.

A good rent allowance would be in the region of 200 - 300 k AED . Fallen off your chair yet? If you are a landlord I suggest you keep quiet as this is paying off your mortgage and generous expat packages have kept the property market bouyant for many years.
Unfortunately many tenants are claiming that reductions in their allowance is in the region of 25% and this is going to have a negative impact on the rent received over the coming months.This will be compounded by the fact that Tiara is about to be handed over and Marina Residence is not far behind.

Companies are definitely hurting at the moment and the champagne expat lifestyle is currently under threat. With reduced rental allowancea comes reduced bonuses and I see the next twelve months being one of attrition.

My advice is pay your rent as you need a roof over your head, stick to beer ( at 6 quid ) as opposed to the bubbly, and suck up to the human resources manager. People are seeing better rental prices on the Palm and many tenants are starting to consider the Palm as an option. The Palm will attract enough tenants to fill the spaces but there will be a lag and in this period where we will see lower pricing. Rents will come back but don't expect too much in the next 12 months.

My 'green eyed monster' has been tamed for a while but I am sure a year on and expats will be smiling once again as allowances are increased and corks start popping.

Will the Dubai Rent Index mean anything?

2009-04-10T07:30:00.004+04:00

RERA launched their Rent Index last year just in an attempt to help stabilise the rental market. With rentals rising rapidly landlords were simply picking a figure and tenants had little choice, so had to accept.
The market started to change in October with the credit crunch biting and landlords expectations were not matching that of the tenant. The Index was immediately out dated and had little relevance in its first 6 months of publication.
On the 15th April 2009 RERA will update the index and in theory there should be an alignment of landlord and tenant expectations.

Yesterday Landmark launched their own unofficial index which is actually a fair reflection on the present situation. Although Landmark have a brokerage department they have always set themselves out to be an advisory company and it will be interesting to note the differences in these two opinions. There is a good a chance that the RERA index will be still be out of date as rents have declined dramatically in the past 3 months and RERA tend to live in bubble.

I think the RERA index will have some relevance but my advice to Landlords and Tenants is to pick an agent who really knows the area in question and so long as you choose to talk to someone who can count to 500 then you should be able to gain a true idea of rental values in Dubai.

I thought of doing our own index for The Palm but I was too scared to offend the Landlords in Tiara who will be less than impressed with present rentals on the Shoreline apartments. However, I have been in Tiara this week and have to say that this development is going to be fantastic . The finish is excellent, the view is amazing and the gardens give you the feel of being in a hotel environment. The shoreline apartment rents will undoubtedly suffer with over 500 Tiara apartments hitting the market in the next 3 months and the rent index will need updating again.

Just missed the last train!

2009-04-02T08:55:00.003+04:00

April is here and I was getting all excited about being able to go up and down the Palm on the monorail. Glide across the ocean to the Atlantis and then put my car up for sale!

Unfortunately the project has been delayed for a few more months whilst more 'testing' is done. My guess is that the monorail is fine, the trains are fine but there is absolutely no chance of any of us boarding one because the stations are no where near close to being ready. You will need a full set of clampons to scale the station walls or a very good trampolene.

These trains are not manned and are run by computers and have been in action most of this year. No matter what time you go on to the Palm the trains are operational so it will not be long before we are all mobile.

I will hold off before selling the car but this piece of infrastructure is going to make a huge difference to the Palm Jumeira giving it another layer of credibility and help make The Palm a special place to visit.

Blood on the Streets

2009-03-31T16:01:00.004+04:00

I always try to keep my nose pretty clean but when CID walk into your office in the middle of the afternoon there is that moment of panic that washes over you.
CID in Dubai are very polite and immediately explained their visit stating that they were investigating an act of violence and needed to know if they could check our guest list of vacation homes over the past few days.
Naturally we obliged and after 10 minutes they were satisfied that we would not be able to help as they were looking for a particular nationality and none of our guests fitted the bill.

It seems that a Chechen has been murdered in Dubai Marina last week and yet to be confirmed but some ugliness on the Palm which may be related.

Working on the Palm for a living is one of those perks I will never grow tired of but all of a sudden my little piece of Paradise has just been infiltrated by reality.

Two bits of advice for you. 1. Keep your nose clean and avoid the panic attacks 2. If you are planning on assassinating anyone in Dubai don't book a snipers pad with us as the police are our best friends!! ( You can check the gory details out on the bbc website)

Guest Blog

2009-03-16T08:47:00.002+04:00

Guest Blog 12/03/09

Room with a view: a visitor’s outlook

Over my last 8 years of visiting Dubai, I had become comfortable with the belief that ‘all that glitters actually was gold’, and for me, the Emirate, although covered in debris currently, remains precious beneath it all.

I have been fortunate enough to visit Dubai 4, 5 & 6 times a year in recent times and have seen its development from various hotel windows.

Over that same period things have prospered in my home land, as in most parts of the world, enabling me to modestly invest in this shiny Arab Emirate. Here I have seen those investments flourish and happily (even joyously) enjoyed the ride that Dubai was providing.

This prosperous haven has, over the last 6 months, fallen into line with the rest of the world with both prospects and property prices heading sharply south. The Emirate that was still being hailed up until recently as the pinnacle of luxury and glamorous excess is now being pelted and ridiculed by the same media. To me it is often more of an embarrassing insight into the void that is the mind of the correspondent and I wonder sometimes why it often sounds so bitter? The Australians have a phrase for it, they call it the tall poppy syndrome; it’s built-up and then ‘they’ take pleasure in knocking it down, a bit of a cheap dig really.

Over those years I saw plans for the Palm turn to visions of spewing sand emerging from the sea, which turned to land, that turned to buildings, which turned to escalating property prices! I saw the shorelines handed over and shared the disappointment with regard to some of the quality aspects - but who could (or would dare) complain when the price had increased 2 fold and later 3 & 4 fold!?!

As the Palm developed the fronds became little communities and having now lived in one (albeit for a short time) I can see the attraction of the sense of community and security that they bring - not to mention the Kudos. Again, as with the shorelines all may not be perfect... people (mostly those that do not live there) can grumble about the close proximity of neighbours and dogs doing their 'thing' on the beaches but it is unique and remains a spectacle both from the air and when driving through the structure, or any aspect of it, by car.

Then The Atlantis; the explosive OTT Dubai style opening and the world wide publicity - and all this taking place well into phase 1 of the world wide economic crisis!!

Now I see the Marina turning from a building site into a developing International City in its own right (I mean like a developing adolescent New York, London or Hong Kong & not Dubai's own International City budget development) - the night views are spectacular and right now, from today’s hotel room, I can see busy traffic both on the SZ Road and locally around the Marina - and its 2am!?! We are in what are described, understandably, as 'depressing' times but still these people are travelling 24/7 - presumably either working or spending. I wandered down ‘the walk’ this week in front of JBR – how nice it is to have an ‘outdoor’ promenade to meander along – all the cafes and restaurants were packed and it is a real boon for both JBR and all the hotels and apartments around the Marina and beyond.

Still the most luxurious buildings and finishings of the Palm are to come... all the Crescent hotels, the Tiara and Oceana developments, the Fairmont on the trunk, perhaps one day a grand mall at the top of the trunk and greenery & finishings around the Palm such as those seen around Madinat Jumeirah.

Nakheel will need to get bailed out if they are to be the ones that are around to complete the Palm; lets face it, they are giving a very good impression right now of being broke so someone needs to do something with them; their ineptness & lack of funds is an embarrassment for Dubai in my view and gives out all the wrong messages by helping people form beliefs that Dubai will not stand up & play fair in the tough times, but instead will pull up the drawbridge and abandon everyone else; investors of any kind, private, corporate or sovereign do not forget these things but there is still time to make a change and change those developing beliefs. Make a change please!

If Nakheel are allowed to sink... (If Dubai Inc are reading this then please don't let Nakheel go under - Nakheel are seen as being 'part of Dubai' and although it may allow some debt to be written off it will set the Emirate back years in terms of PR and attracting any new foreign institutional or private investment).. I'll repeat that first bit... If Nakheel are allowed to sink (& with dignity please - if that’s possible?!) then it will not be unusual for the originating development company of such a large infrastructure project to go broke - on such vast infrastructure projects the cost is often so enormous that it is seldom possible to recoup costs and survive in any fit state; the Channel Tunnel is a typical example of this scenario (for our European viewers).

So here we now are; prices are said to be 50% down, but not everywhere, let's face it; in some areas you cannot even get 50% of June 08's price! In fact in most areas other than Palm Jumeirah you simply cannot sell a property - at any price!!

This is where we are today – it is not just Dubai that is down, it is the world! Even the most ardent fans of Dubai are beginning to recognise and accept this fall - but the new, and by far the more interesting question, is ‘what next for the glittering Emirate?’

It is interesting to see those folk that never made money in the local property boom condemn all the property owners and claim significance from their 'intelligence' of being able to foresee this downturn; ‘collapse’ they call it. I think, to some level, they have a compelling argument about their wit, although it kind of 'falls flat' when you ask as to why their foresight was not deployed to make themselves millions of dollars during the 'up' period!?! Although these people will have an answer for that – these people always do!

The new wealthy that made money from local property fall into various categories. These include those that are wholly depressed and talk about yesterday and ‘if only’, others are equally annoying by being too upbeat, looking forward to 'prices returning to their previous levels soon’. I have been at least one of these and equally annoying! Mark?

The guys that make most of the money most of the time tend not to talk much. These guys are simply devoting their attention to 'doing' and working on ‘what next’, along with ‘how to make the current situation better’ - not bothering to seek comfort by sharing tales of woe or searching for reassurance about market resurrection; "perhaps these guys can afford not to worry" I hear you say, or was that me!? Perhaps that is true but I am sure there is a connection between their attitude and their prosperity & that may be another lesson that some of us can take from these troubled times.

I believe it is important to see it AS IT IS – to get real!! But also NOT to see it WORSE than it is – and this is where most people appear to struggle right now in my view. If you were to believe the world press you’d be forgiven for thinking the locals were heading back into the desert, setting up their tents and taking up pearl diving – with the name of Dubai to be erased from the map for 100 years.

The way I see it - one day soon the world will figure a way to get back to some form of normality. Finding a solution has every ones attention right now and they will sort it. At what cost, how long it will take, and what the ‘new rules’ of the game will be no one exactly knows. Countries, companies and financial entities will re-organise themselves and between them create a path forward that new & reformed entities will quickly tread. A massive vacuum devoid of trade and finance is being created and, like any vacuum, this will quickly get filled once the door is opened.

Everyone has struggled and most have been hit, both countries and individuals alike, and although the numbers of $’s everyone had has now diminished, most still retain similar places in the pecking order; Dubai included!!

Dubai was a fast growing key location in this emerging region of power – and it still will be. It is in a location that bridges between both East & West and also Africa & the old Soviet States - in the middle of key oil states that hold sizable SWF's and amidst some of the few countries that will maintain some semblance of positive growth over the period of gloom we are now in. Some would argue that it is right in the middle of the new world powers – with only the US missing. The US will remain a super power of course – but because of the oil here, the trade & opportunity, and the security issues the US have travelled to be here and want to be involved too – so everyone is at this party!

The main thing for Dubai is that it has retained its core business model and remains a great place for traders of all types to be. Property corrections and over-leveraged state entities can be dealt with & fixed. Becoming a poor environment for trade would be far more damaging for Dubai and when the world resumes business, city-states such as Dubai will flourish.

Dubai may have suffered but it was exciting, dynamic and fast emerging before the crisis and it will be the same once the crisis is over. It has been hit but so has every one else and Dubai will maintain its status amongst the best places to be in the world that offer opportunity; and some say it is likely to offer some of the quickest opportunities of the new upturn.

Dubai is now positioned as a trading and service hub in this oil rich region and it will not disappear. Oil prices that are so key for the countries of the region will recover as supply is reigned in and world economies recover sometime over the next 1, 2 or 3 years, with the price likely to (quite quickly if you read the recent report by the International Energy Agency) go back to between $80 & $100 per barrel. This will lead to creating sizable budget excesses again for all the local oil producing countries and Dubai will see benefit from this.

Away from business the Emirate remains a remarkable place to visit and it still takes my breath away. The weather, its hotels, beaches, malls, personal safety (if you omit driving or crossing the road!) and the rulers continued focus toward making it a leading holiday destination will continue to cause tourists to flock here. Yes, there are issues; many hotels although gorgeous are too costly for many travelling pockets and the cost of 'tourist living' in the resort locations and premier restaurants is not cheap either, especially now... but the former will always out 'do' the latter and ultimately basic economic pointers will determine price.

A property market will return, Dubai will once again return to being incredibly popular and property prices will start to move forward from the excessive lows that followed the excessive highs; with an initial spurt possible from current ‘distressed sale’ lows once lending returns and the world feels confident that all bad news is on the table.

Property is continuing to sell on the Palm and that is why we can say that many prices are 50% down from June 2008 (if you have to sell today) – it is amazing & testimony to Palm’s standing that property is continuing to change hands there in such uncertain world times but such is the attraction of the Palm. The Palm will be where we see the earliest shoots of a recovery and prices there could well see a jump of 10 or 20% or more when a bottom is accepted and all the distressed sales are gone; perhaps some lending at reasonable LTV’s and % rates wouldn’t go a miss either although I do understand the banks reservations on lending to anyone right now as their own financial situations remain unclear.

Many of the offers coming in for property today are from those that hope sellers have a bill to pay back home and need to sell at any cost. This is the market we have as of early 2009. Fortunately, for most, their position is not that of a distressed seller and they do not want to sell at any cost, although sadly I know for others it is. I have property on the Palm and I have a unit for sale there. It is for sale at a rate that is 50% down from the highs and I would be more than comfortable to rent now if the unit is not sold shortly.

Property is illiquid and therefore this is one of the downturn scenarios to be considered for any property investment; but the key thing and recent tide change for me is that I am confident that this new price level is the bottom line. It is likely, certainly possible, that distressed sales may make some units turnover for a little less than this over the coming period but in general terms I have confidence in the value of this property, in this location, in this town, at these rates – and in time it will build from there.

Forget what has past, if I had to choose a 2nd property for personal use, a business base and investment potential from today’s new prices, I’d still want it to be here.

It is sad for those who have to sell right now and some of the personal stories of loss in Dubai, as elsewhere around the world, are grim and regrettable; but from an economic standpoint these distressed sales need to go out of the market and then all would-be buyers will know what the real prices are. Odd units from distressed sellers coming onto the market perpetuates the ‘wait & see’ attitude of the buyers that are around, with most buyers saying ‘I will wait’ because they think someone else may need to sell for a low price next week. They may well be right for now and if they have little concern over the type of property they end up with then they may well get a bargain – distressed sales are part of the economic cycle after all – but in general I feel the prices for the best locations are at, or close to, the ‘come and get me’ rate – and confidence is now the main obstacle preventing things moving forward.

Sentiment can change quickly however and some commentators are seemingly already getting fed up of the Dubai bashing and are now saying these current prices (on the Palm) could double over the next 3 to 5 years – not great if you have just seen your house value drop 50% in the last 6 months but a nice outlook for those buying now! Personally I do not see a rush for much ‘coming and getting’ until after this summer at least but it will happen & Dubai will prosper; until then there remains bargains to be had.

Top Trump

2009-02-21T11:02:00.004+04:00

When I was a small boy I used to play a card game called Trump Cards. The pack of cards consisted of say Battleships ( or cars, planes etc) and you would try to collect full sets from your competition. I can't remember if i was any good at it and I certainly cannot remember the facts and figures of HMS Hermes etc.

One thing I do remember is that it was called TRUMP.

As a slightly older boy it seems that history is repeating itself with a new Trump game coming into my life. This time it not a harmless pack of cards but the illustrious Donald Trump.We have many clients who invested in the Trump Tower Dubai on Palm Jumeirah believing the hype that it was going to be the most luxurious piece of real estate in the Middle East if not the World.Unfortunately in Novemeber 2008 the trump was cancelled and investors were offered their money back. After two days the lawyers retracted this and said the development was 'delayed' and no refunds were therefore possible. Nakheel have since offered properties in International City as a payoff ( at over inflated valuations ) whereby the investor has to put in more cash to try and get out of the Trump Tower. 3 months later the Trump investors are left in limbo as Nakheel or Trump refuse to finalise the account. One irate investor has even been told he may have to wait 4 years for his money.Trump do not answer calls on this subject in the New York office and Nakheel have the habit of changing their minds every morning on decisions made the previous day.

Yes there is a credit crunch and everybody knows that plans have to change but there is such a miscommunication from Nakheel that they have now alienated 50 + high net worth investors who I think will be unlikely to invest in Nakheel ever again.

It seems that Nakheel think they are holding all the Trump Cards but I am sure that when we all sit down for the next card game there will be empty seats at the table.

Stop trying to fly through the glass!

2009-01-15T14:48:00.002+04:00

Love this town.

Last sunday Nakheel declared that all Shoreline transfers were on hold as they were finlly sending the details off to the Land's Department for Registration. This means that any sales done now will not be transferable until the Lands's Department issue a Title Deed to the seller who can then sell it to the new buyer. If I tell you that some signature Villa owners have been waiting for their title in excess of one year you will understand that we are a little concerned as to how we can keep trading the Shorelines.

48 hrs later the answer has appeared from our little terriors out there. Easy sir "the seller needs to give the buyer power of attorney and the buyer will give the seller the full funds and if the buyer is a little nervous still then the seller can issue a security cheque. If they are both still nervous then they can get a lawyer to do it instead of us' sir.' Read it again it does make sense!

I am happy to admit that i am the fly that keeps trying to fly through the glass. In Dubai people amaze me sometimes as to how much money they will commit without the usual belt and braces but at least we can offer a solution and keep selling Shorelines.

Crime Lords

2009-01-12T15:21:00.003+04:00

A few days after letting you all know that the Russians are coming it seems that we have a small problem. The Daily Mirror in the UK has now confirmed that Dubai is the new Crime Centre of the World and has usurped Costa Del Crime in Spain.

You have to be careful what you say but I would say this is probably a fair assessment.

I believe the prisons are filling up nicely with bent real estate developers and the odd agent who have been tempted by the slack regulations Dubai has been operating on. Having visited Miami I refuse to believe that we are even close to equalling the filth of the Cuban drug barons and the likes of Bernie Madof who infest the Miami shores.

True it is alot easier to bank large sums of dollars in Dubai than in the UK and so long as the banks are happy then i think there are a few real estate investors who will welcome the odd Adidas bag bulging at the seams with the lovely green back.

Can you feel a Pulse?

2009-01-09T09:54:00.005+04:00

I made a few calls to investors this week to chew the fat over what might be for the next 12 months. One asked " has the patient got a pulse Mark?" Immediately the salesman in me offered my enthusiasm as to how the patient did indeed have a pulse and was on the road to some sort of recovery.
Later that night I sat and thought about this question further and now offer my prognosis for the latest victim of the world economy.
Last October the A & E Ward at Dubai General Real Estate Hospital became flooded overnight with casualties. With blood on the floor real estate agents spent the next 6 weeks talking to anxious sellers who in the main were looking for the exit door. Big problem was there were only sellers active and literally no buyers. There was a point where I thought 'that's it' the buyers are never coming back.
By December the sellers had all burnt themselves out and the market although seriously wounded was not about to give up and die.Buyers were ringing, asking for discounts and starting to make a few offers. There is only one thing to note about these buyers and that is the fact that without exception they are all cash buyers.
Only cash I thought. This is still serious! My business deals with the cream of dubai property with average prices in excess of a million dollars and i am going to need to find enough cash buyers to blance the books. Not going to happen was my immediate thought. We need help or the pulse will fade.
Fast forward to January and the doctor is hopeful of a good recovery based on recent signs. Still only cash buyers, usually with heavy Russian accents but this is the month for the Russians to come to Dubai and take advantage of the Shopping discounts and so far property is on the shopping list.
January is already looking to be a good month and one shoreline property although well priced has had 14 viewings and 3 offers. Sale agreed in excess of the asking price and to me a sure sign that the patient has a pulse.

I know that one swallow doesn't make a summer but the phones are ringing with buyers again and the doctor is optimistic of a slow but steady recovery.Finance and a few more Russians will also help but this particular property doctor will be happier when there is a broader mix of buyers entering the market.

2008-12-31T12:07:00.003+04:00

Cancel New Years Eve!!

Yes! You read it right first time. On the 31st December the Boss has posted on his website that New years Eve is cancelled. Is money that tight that a few fireworks leftover from the Atlantis opening will be too expensive!

No, it is in respect of the troubles in Palestine where the battle between Israel and Palestine rumbles on violently. Not going any further into this political hot potato!

Still, the hotels have been unusually quiet over the November and December period with the Burj running some nights at 15% occupancy. Yesterday was the first full night as all the revellers flocked in for New Year fun! "Welcome back Mr Yuri we have saved your favourite room and cancelled the Best party of the Year. Have a wonderful stay with us!Hope to see you next year???"

For any of you with a warped sense of humour like me I recommend a trip to the Grosevenor House Lobby where all hell is breaking loose and the poor staff are probably wishing they were in Gaza where there will be at least a chance of a cease fire at midnight!

Property

Considering it is Xmas we have been blessed this year some very good activity. Sales are up on last year and the prospects are looking good for 2009.

The prices are terrible i admit but we will see these build over 2009 as the market normalises. If people want to sell at last January prices there are cash buyers out there.

We have seen shorelines sell this week and had 3 separate offers on Signature villas with a Garden home crossing the line too.

The market is quite busy and I am confident that the next level of buyers will start to enter the market and at this point the market will stabilise.
In the New Year we are going to add a stats page to the website which will show current market prices for all property areas we deal with. Most people will not believe the figures we publish but i can assure you they will be based on actual transactions so worth a look.

Finally..

2008 has been a very strange year for us all in property. With the market going crazy between January and May the big mistake was to ignore what was happening elsewhere in the world and think that we were in some safe little bubble we liked to call Dubai. Reality well and truly set in after Ramadan when it became clear that the bubble had burst and after only 8-12 weeks prices are now 35% lower and even lower if you need to sell very quickly.
Markets always fluctuate and now the initial shock is over there are people re entering at more affordable levels.
I would like to see 2009 show us a period of calm where the whole market can take stock and act more responsibly for the future.As market forces always prevail in the end you can count on the next 12 months being steady with some good opportunities to purchase some excellent real estate at discounted prices.Have a drink and come back next year for the bargains.

Happy New Year to you all!! ( those of us in Dubai tonight may have a small problem.. someone spat their dummy out this morning and the party is cancelled!)

2008-12-12T18:17:00.003+04:00

Fore!!

Friday is Golf Day for many expats in Dubai and a day when the hard working non taxpayers let rip, and smash their little white balls down the centre of a well manicured fairway.

My course of choice is theErnie Els course at Victory Heights which i cannot say enough good about. The course is amazing, the houses will be great and the club is managed to a very high standard. It is so good i just can't believe they can make it pay. As you arrive the car park security guard salutes with so much gusto you can't help but look at your shoes and make sure their clean. Then you pull up and two attendants take your clubs out of the back of the car and wish you a 'good round Mr Mark' . I haven't even left the car yet. Then I meander up the path to the club house and the door swings open with a welcoming smile and another good morning Mr Mark through to the reception and I sign in for my round.

Two more people meet me in the changing rooms to give a locker key, towel, and as it a competition day some free gifts (more little white balls etc).

So a quick practice to loosen up and yet again every time I put my clubs down a new friend to clean my clubs and then carry them to the buggy. Little wonder I have gained the legendary Dubai Stone. All I need is roller skates and I could reduce my energy burning to zero.

After 18 holes and 7 attempts to give me drinks and food I sink my final put and yet agin another friend is at hand to replace the flag and direct us to the complimentary bbq.

This place is amazing and althouhgh it sounds a bit over the top I cannot thank the Els Club team enough for making my Friday's in 2008 very special.

Now for you investors out there who like your golf you will not make a mistake if you choose to buy at the Victory Heights which envelopes the Els course. There are some fabulous deals around which will prove to be a great little earner and you can play golf with me on a Friday. Or watch me kiss a bottle of budweiser on a friday afternoon.

2008-11-29T09:06:00.006+04:00

Grand Lady of the seas arrives

A week after the Atlantis party it took the 'Grand Lady of the Seas' arrival to bring some class to the usually more over the top Dubai. With the glamour of last week still ringing in our ears the QE2 bought a touch of elegance to the Dubai shores.

Launched in 1969 she is undoubtedly going to need a full refit and Dubai will be responsible for this sensitive project. Mr Ursprunger, CEO of QE2 Nakheel, has this task and his new first lady seen by millions as a demure sophisticated lady is about to have a full Hollywood style extreme makeover. She is going to totter into the Beverly Hills drydocks 90210 of Port Rashid looking a bit saggy and after a couple of years come out completely transformed into the usual 'fur coat and no knickers' sparkler Dubai is famous for. For $250m of facelift lets hope they don't use the same surgeon as Cynthia Weinstein.

There are plenty of rumours surounding what the QE2 will offer so straight from the unenhanced lips of Mr Ursprunger here is my current take on what the new project will offer.

A spur of reclaimed land just past Al Khudrawi will be named the 'QE2 Precinct' where the liner will be docked. The liner will be converted into a 200 room hotel offering a theatre capable of supporting Broadway shows, 5 Reastaurants, a huge spa, and a maritime museum.

The land area will consis of 65 residences, English Gardens and marina facilities. All in all this project is a massive plus for the Palm Jumeirah and those of you who have invested in the Shorelines must be feeling very smug. When this project is finished the Palm will be a true resort and prices for real estate will be through the roof.

Property
The market is quiet at the moment but the hard core investors are pinching themselves with excitement. I spoke to one of our more cavalier clients a couple of days ago who is convinced that this 'correction has provided the opportunity to make some great deals and duplicate what he has achieved over the past 5 years'. Good Luck my friend but please show some loyalty and remember our number.

Amlak and Tamweel ( Mortgage Lenders) are now merging their businesses which in essence makes them the Fannae and Freddie of the UAE. I expect this power house to start lending again in the new year and kickstart the market. Over the past 4 weeks property sales have been slow but only because buyers are struggling to get finance. Once this nationalised mortgage lender gets started you will see prices firm up considerably. In addition to this Abu Dhabi have created their own lending arm, AD Finance, which will be run by our old friend Philip Ward ( ex Barclays). This guy knows how to set up mortgage departments and Abu Dhabi will pump mega money into this company to stimulate growth.

This is all the market needs to see a real difference as the rents are spiralling out of control and many of these over charged tenants are looking to buy.

I promised you some big news last week which has not materialised.. My collagen free lips will have to remain sealed a while longer before i spill the beans ....

Thanks for the comments last week and a big hello from the Villa to Louise.

2008-11-23T22:44:00.002+04:00

The Party Aftermath

Wow! Fantastic is all anybody can say about the Atlantis party. I didn't even get an invite but thought it was great.

The Fireworks were truly awesome and no matter where you were in Dubai their splendour was to be seen. That is unless you are the other Director of E and T who confessed, at Costa, that he was enjoying a lovely sleep at the time. Philistine!

Fortunately at E and T we have a very well connected broker who managed to get his half Arab half Scottish legs onto the Red Carpet... I can just imagine how he deliberated on the white dress or the kilt! After hours in wardrobe i'm sure he looked dashing in his Armani and we are all waiting for the next edition of Ahlan! I confess to being a "wee" bit jealous when our favourite jock came back with tales of "Bobby" De Niro and the Olsen Twins, not to mention Natalie and Charlize, but at the same time we now have a few extra stories to dine out on.

Back to reality and one of my favourite competitors managed to keep things real by trying to gate crash the big night. A brave move considering the sex on the beach outcome. After a failed attempt at the Atlantis our gallant Antipodean was picked up on the trunk of the palm in a rather poor state and was swiftly given what most of us know as a night in her majesty's pleasure. I am happy to report that the lovable scoundrel ( my mother's words) has been released and will be back performing what he does best - selling property.

I love living in Dubai and i really think that the past weekend typified everything this amazing Emirate has to offer.. Fun , Glitz, and totally unrealistic expectations that are to the most part fulfilled weekend after weekend..

Property Life

Things are a little less exciting on the property front today with the market struggling to get going. I am putting this down to the extended frivolities of the weekend. This said there are some encouraging signs coming through.

We have had viewing on Signature villas and Shorelines today with a few more vultures coming out to play. Some silly offers i admit but also some realistic offers which sellers are considering.

It is only Sunday and i really believe this week will be a week of announcements from the big two developers.. i will keep you posted!

Atlantis Opening.

2008-11-20T15:33:00.003+04:00

On the day of the big opening the Atlantis will tonight be shown to the world. I can't honestly say that the excitement is killing me but those of you who know me wouldn't expect me to be hanging out in the Buddha Bar looking for B and C listers with my autograph book. However, that said the Hotel is now looking great and you can see from my last sky dive that it has taken shape and from this photo the effect from the 40 m AED firework display should be outstanding.

40m AED for a firework display! No doubt this has been embellished a little over the past week but twice as big as the Beijing Olympics and probably 5 times bigger than the future London Olympics. That's Dubai for you.

Property News.

Thank God it's Thursday! The week has not been full of much cheer this week i''m sorry to report. Redundancies are now rife in our sector of the market and i think we have only started to see the start of things to come. Brokers and developers are shedding jobs on a daily basis and it must start to hit the takings at the Barasti Real Estate Broker's Bar soon.

On a positive note there are sales out there folks. The vultures are swarming and the prices are softening but sales are happening and bargains are being bagged.

This week we've seen Garden Homes on Jebel Ali and Jumeirah sell and shorelines with sea views are holding up nicely. The rents on Shorelines are keeping the investors very happy with returns starting from 8% and upwards.

My spies tell me that next week is going to be full of high profile stories which i will endeavour to keep you upto date on with the inside track.

Tips

Palm Jebel Ali Garden Homes at anything below 50% and Waterhomes around 3.6m AED.

Don't overlook Shorelines with a sea view the rental returns are amazing.